Dan Snyder's decided to hire Mike Shanahan as the new head coach of my beloved Washington Redskins. The statistical evidence suggests this is a bad decision, like virtually every other decision Snyder's ever made:
"[I]n the end, the majority of the most successful NFL headmen -- past and present -- have possessed at least one of the following four characteristics: 1) They were between ages 41 and 49; 2) they had at least 11 years of NFL coaching experience; 3) they were assistants on teams that won at least 50 games over a five-year span; and 4) they had only one previous NFL head coaching gig."
Besides the age issue, the fourth characteristic is the real problem. According to an article in the latest ESPN magazine (not on line), coaches on their third NFL head coaching position win only 52% of their games on average.
So who should Snyder have hired? If you believe the data presented by that ESPN article, the answer is: Marty Mornhinweg. He'd have joined Bill Belichick as one of only two current head coaches meeting all four criteria. Not bad company inwhich to find oneself.
Hiring anyone who has ever had any position with the Detroit Lions is a risky maneuver, due to the Ford curse preventing winning. :))
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | 01/06/2010 at 07:36 AM
I wouldn't worry about the 4th criteria. Arguably, the Broncos never should have fired Shanahan, so I'll give him a pass.
Do you have a statistic on winning percentages of multiple-Super Bowl winning coaches moving on to other teams?
Posted by: Rich from Ohio | 01/06/2010 at 08:32 AM
I see three benefits to Shanahan: (1) he is an upgrade over Zorn; (2) his strong personality means a high likelyhood that he will give Snyder push back; and, (3) all of my Cowboy fan friends were hoping that Dallas would hire him to replace Phillips.
Posted by: Drew Cloutier | 01/06/2010 at 10:17 AM