... stocks are flirting with all-time highs, up 88% since Mr. Obama took office and 124% since the lows of March 2009. So shall stock pickers canonize Mr. Obama alongside Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton?
Not yet. The Obama rally has nothing in common with the 1982-2000 boom. It is much more a replay of the Gerald Ford-Jimmy Carter rally of 1974-80, which was a flight of the U.S. dollar into stocks, commodities, real estate—anything but the weakening greenback. ...
With the S&P 500 up 124% over the past four years, gold is up 88%, oil 106% and silver 167%.
What does a genuine stock rally look like? For that, see the August 1982 to January 2000 boom, during which the S&P 500 soared 1,194% while gold dropped in value by 35%, oil by 23%, and silver by 17%. Stocks way up. Commodities down.
The difference between illusory stock rallies and the real thing is stark. During the Ford, Carter and Obama years, the weakening U.S. dollar drove investors out of cash. In the Reagan, Bush 41 and Clinton years, Americans benefited from a strong dollar, while stocks (and bonds) wildly outperformed commodities.