Proposals to close the deficit by taxing the rich are unlikely to prove effective even if they manage to squeeze past the DC GOP. Why? Because it results in a narrow tax base whose taxable income tends to be highly volatile.
Barbara Hollingsworth, for example, notes that:
Newsalert has posted a chart from a Wall Street Journal blog titled “Recession and the Rich.” The chart, based on 2009 IRS figures, shows that the number of taxpayers reporting annual income over $1 million fell 39 percent between 2007 and 2009; the number of super-wealthy individuals making over $10 million annually plunged 55 percent.
The carnage wasn’t confined to millionaires. The number of taxpayers earning over $200,000 per year also decreased by 612,000 – or 13 percent. ...The chart also shows how the loss of these top income earners adversely affected the federal government’s bottom line.
In 2007, those making above $200,000 (but less than $1 million) paid $610 billion in federal income taxes. In 2009, it was only $434 billion – leading to a 29 percent decrease in government revenue.
In other words, the more dependent the government becomes on income and capital gains taxes on the rich, the greater the volatility in government income.
State governments--including those in my home state of California--are now once again rediscovering this basic proposition:
The volatile stock market highlighted a growing problem for budget planners. In recent decades, states from California to New York have become increasingly reliant on taxes generated from their residents' investment income. Now, they have found themselves more vulnerable than ever to the market's gyrations—with serious consequences for state-funded schools, courthouses and other institutions. ...
California is among the states most dependent on the wealthy and their investments, along with such states as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts, according to the Rockefeller Institute.
In California, the top fifth of taxpayers accounted for 89% of personal state income tax revenue in 2007, up from 81% in 1993, as wealthy Californians profited from the dot-com and real-estate booms, according to state data. The contributions from all other income groups declined in that period.
Then came the recession, which sent the contribution of the top fifth of taxpayers slipping to 85% in 2009. That helped lead to a crippling budget crisis for the state, which resorted to IOUs to pay its bills that year.
As the state's economy continued to suffer, state forecasters were puzzled this May when they saw that income-tax collections for 2010 had come in much higher than economic data had led them to predict.
That bolstered their confidence that a recovery was under way. That belief, along with pressure to close an enormous budget gap without added taxes, persuaded Gov. Jerry Brown to boost his earlier revenue assumption by $8.4 billion by the time he signed the budget for the fiscal year starting July 1. That increase denotes the apples-to-apples rise after adjusting for other changes to the budget, said a finance-department official.
A key source of the hoped-for boost: a rise in wages and capital gains for wealthy Californians, according to the finance-department official. That means the market downturn of recent weeks will "tend to make additional revenue less likely," the official said, "but we don't know what's going to happen in the coming weeks and months."
The California Department of Finance will update its forecast in December. If it seems then that revenue will fall short of expectations, the budget calls for up to $2.5 billion in midyear cuts to schools, higher education, public safety and other areas depending on the size of the shortfall. That's on top of $15 billion in cuts and other spending-reduction maneuvers already approved this year.
The solution is to broaden the tax base, as Harvey Golub suggested in today's WSJ:
Today, top earners—the 250,000 people who earn $1 million or more—pay 20% of all income taxes, and the 3% who earn more than $200,000 pay almost half. Almost half of all filers pay no income taxes at all. Clearly they earn less and should pay less. But they should pay something and have a stake in our government spending their money too.
In addition, the extraordinarily complex tax code is replete with favors to various interest groups and industries, favors granted by politicians seeking to retain power. Mortgage interest deductions support the private housing industry at the expense of renters. Generous fringe benefits are not taxed at all, in order to support union and government workers at the expense of people who buy their own insurance with after-tax dollars. Gifts to charities are deductible but gifts to grandchildren are not. That's just a short list, and all of it is unfair.
Flatter (but still progressive) tax rates applicable to a much broader swath of the populace with many fewer special interest exemptions strikes this observer as a system that would be both fairer and much more stable in application. Proposals to move the tax system in the opposite direction will thus make the system less fair and more volatile, neither of which seems like a good idea.
Social Media