CatholicPages.com offers a good article on how a new Pope is elected (link via Relapsed Catholic). There's been a key change in the rules since John Paul II was elected:
To be elected Pope, one Cardinal must receive more than two-thirds of the votes. Except that if 30 elections have taken place without any one Cardinal being elected Pope, then the Cardinals may then elect by simple majority.Perhaps in response, the Cardinals will no longer have to "stay in uncomfortable, makeshift quarters in the Papal Palace," but instead "will stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, hotel-style accommodation in Vatican City." Under the old system, when countless ballots were theoretically possible, the lousy accomodations presumably encouraged the Cardinals to reach consensus. (I remember stories about how LBJ used to lock employers and union leaders into a room to settle strikes.) Volokh Conspirator (and Marginal Revolutionist) Tyler Cowen brings a little game theory to the task of analyzing the electoral process:
Assume that each cardinal wishes to back the winning candidate, all other things being equal. You have more leverage if you are part of the winning coalition. So you may support your favored candidate at the beginning, but drop that support if it becomes clear your favorite has no chance. You will then switch to the next best alternative, which is some weighted average of how much you like the candidate and how strong a contender the candidate is. Of course you might never back a candidate you abhor, or a candidate whose chances are hopeless.
The first round of voting reveals information, namely who has how much support. ... You don't have to be the leader in the first round to become Pope. You might be the second or third choice of the voters who supported non-viable candidates, they will switch to you as their candidates drop out. You might then pull into the lead, thereby picking up yet additional support. Still, you have to become established as a leading alternative candidate, pretty early on in the game.
The voting method encourages conservatism of choice, and that indeed is my prediction for the day. Radical challengers have a hard time appearing inevitable or focal. ... Oddly, it can be worse for a candidate to appear "too inevitable." That forces many second-tier candidates to lose their supporters, which can coalesce support around somebody else, too quickly. There is an old saying: "He who enters a conclave as Pope comes out a Cardinal."He concludes by showing his cards:
When the choice is announced, Andrew Sullivan will be disappointed. But Andrew should have heart, and remember the old political saying, "Only Nixon Can Go To China."Let's hope not, as Right Coaster Tom Smith explains:
[Today's NYT includes an essay by Andrew Sullivan on his] conscience as a gay man in the Catholic Church. I wonder what the odds would be of getting one's struggles of conscience published on the op-ed page of the times if the chase was, "you know, I should go back to the Church," or "I guess conventional morality was right about X after all." Remote, I should think. We find out Mr. Sullivan was unable to bring himself to go to Mass this Sunday because a gay couple he knows was kicked out of their parish choir for getting civilly unionized in Canada. ... I guess the gist is that Mr. Sullivan is threatening to quit the Church if it doesn't shape up on gay issues. But he's not quite fed up yet, I guess. Maybe the Church can have one last chance. Me, I think the corruption at Vatican I that Acton complained about is embarassing, the whole Spanish Inquistion thing was bad, persecuting Protestants generally no better, priests taking part in recent genocides in Africa even worse, pedophile priests awful, etc., etc. Being a Catholic is like being an American. There is a lot you have to put up with. But the best of it is pretty good, and we have good enemies.Yep.
