Marc Hodak offers some predictions:
He goes on to offer detailed specifics.By the end of 2014:
- Insurance premiums will be higher
- The percent of America’s uninsured will fall far short of the target
- Medicare’s benefits will be reduced
- The federal budget deficit will be higher than currently projected
- Medical costs will be higher than currently projected
Update: Megan McArdle offers 8 predictions of her own, of which these strike me as especially salient:
6) This program will not reduce the rate of growth in medical costs by anything like 1.5% a year.
7) A fiscal crisis of some sort is quite likely by 2030, though not just because of this program. But this program will make it worse, either by increasing the deficit directly, or by using up the low-hanging fruit that should have funded Medicare reform.
8) By 2030, there's an 80% chance that the government will have imposed substantial price controls on pharma and other medical technology--and this will noticeably slow the rate of innovation.
